Blog
Insights on resolution risk, dispute pricing, and settlement delays in prediction markets.
Temporal Ambiguity and Timezone Disputes in Event Markets: Navigating Resolution Risks
Delve into the complexities of temporal ambiguity and how it affects resolution risks in event markets, with practical examples and insights on how to navigate and mitigate these risks.
Resolving Ambiguity in Prediction Markets: A Deep Dive into Linguistic Patterns and Resolution Risk
Delve into the role of linguistic ambiguity in prediction markets, exploring how it impacts resolution risk and how SettleRisk's API mitigates related risks.
Dissecting Ambiguity: Predicting Resolution Risk in Prediction Markets
Explore the linguistic patterns behind ambiguous wording in prediction markets and how SettleRisk's API assesses resolution risk.
Retroactive Rule Changes: The Highest-Impact Risk Driver
Why retroactive rule changes carry the highest base points in SettleRisk's driver taxonomy, with case studies and an early-warning detection strategy.
Cross-Platform Risk Arbitrage: Pricing Differentials Between Polymarket and Kalshi
When the same event is listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi at different prices, how much of the spread is real edge and how much is platform-specific resolution risk?
Metric Definition Risk: When 'Inflation' Means Three Different Things
How metric definition ambiguity creates resolution disputes in prediction markets — and why specifying CPI vs PCE vs Core matters more than the headline rate.
Multi-Step Resolution: Markets with Compound Settlement Conditions
How SettleRisk models markets that require multiple chained conditions to resolve, why probability decomposition matters, and a worked tariff-market example.
Deterministic Scoring: Why Reproducibility Matters in Risk Infrastructure
Why SettleRisk's scoring engine is bit-for-bit deterministic across version stamps, and what that buys you when something goes wrong in production.
gRPC StreamAlerts: Low-Latency Risk Signals for Trading Systems
How to subscribe to SettleRisk's gRPC StreamAlerts service for sub-second risk-tier changes, with a working Go consumer.
Subjective Outcomes: When Markets Resolve by Committee
Subjective-judgment markets are the highest-loss bucket in prediction-market history. Why committee resolution amplifies dispute risk and how to size around it.
Building a Resolution-Risk Dashboard with SettleRisk Webhooks
How to wire SettleRisk's 7 webhook event types into a live risk dashboard. HMAC verification, idempotency, and a working Node.js consumer.
The Pricing Engine: From Risk Score to Adjusted Fair Price
Walk through SettleRisk's pricing engine end-to-end: how risk score, dispute probability, and settlement delay combine into adjusted fair price, risk premium, and fair spread.
Temporal Ambiguity: Why Timezone Bugs Account for One in Five Disputes
Timezone and date-window ambiguity is one of the most common — and most fixable — drivers of prediction-market disputes. A deep dive on detection and mitigation.
Oracle Failure Modes: A Failure Tree for Prediction-Market Resolution
The seven failure modes that take down prediction-market oracles, modeled as a failure tree with probabilities and a worked Polymarket case study.
Ambiguous Wording Detection: Linguistic Patterns That Predict Disputes
The seven linguistic patterns that account for most prediction-market resolution disputes — how SettleRisk detects them, and what to do when you see them in a contract.
Driver Attribution: How 15 Typed Risk Factors Combine into One Score
A walk through SettleRisk's driver taxonomy: 15 typed risk factors, their base points, and the exact arithmetic that maps them into a single 0-100 aggregate score.
Capital Lockup Cost in Basis Points: Pricing the Time Value of Frozen Capital
How SettleRisk converts a settlement-delay distribution into a concrete capital lockup cost in basis points, and why most desks systematically under-price it.
Lognormal Settlement Delay: A Market Maker's Practical Guide
Why prediction-market settlement delays follow a lognormal distribution, how to use p50/p90/p99 estimates in live quoting, and a worked Kalshi example.
Dispute Probability Calibration: Sizing Positions Around Resolution Risk
How to translate SettleRisk's p_dispute output into concrete position-sizing rules. Closed-form math, a worked Polymarket example, and the failure modes that wipe undisciplined desks.
Resolution Timing Arbitrage: Exploiting Cross-Platform Settlement Asynchronicity
Learn how resolution timing differences across prediction market platforms create arbitrage opportunities and hidden risks. Includes quantitative models, detection scripts, and risk management frameworks.
Risk Alert: Nevada Prediction Market Cases Hit State Court—Resolution Uncertainty Spikes
Nevada moves Kalshi and Polymarket lawsuits to state court, creating new resolution risks for prediction market participants ahead of March Madness.
Kalshi Hit With Class-Action Over Iran Market: Why Resolution Risk Just Spiked
Two traders file class-action lawsuit against Kalshi over Khamenei ouster market. Learn how legal and regulatory pressure is changing resolution risk on prediction markets.
Oracles Under Pressure: A Quantitative Framework for Resolution Risk
Learn a quantitative framework for evaluating oracle resolution risk in prediction markets. Includes probability models, worked examples, and implementation code.
Risk Alert: Polymarket Shuts Nuclear Markets Amid Iran Conflict—Resolution Criteria Under Scrutiny
Polymarket removed nuclear detonation contracts as Iran conflict escalates. Traders face heightened resolution ambiguity on war-related markets.
Kalshi's $2.2M Payout Exposes Death Market Resolution Risk
Kalshi's $2.2M payout over Khamenei market resolution reveals critical fine-print risks in prediction markets tied to human survival events.
Building Redundant Oracle Feeds: A Practical Guide to Prediction Market Resolution Infrastructure
Learn how to build resilient, multi-source oracle pipelines for prediction market resolution. Includes implementation patterns, failure mode analysis, and production-ready code examples.
Risk Alert: Kalshi Freezes $54M Khamenei Payouts Amid Resolution Crisis
Kalshi froze $54M in winning bets on Khamenei's ouster, triggering a resolution crisis. Traders face platform risk as regulatory pressure intensifies across multiple states.
Iran Strike Bets: The $1.2M Insider Trading Problem Prediction Markets Can't Ignore
Six Polymarket wallets made $1.2M betting on the Iran strike hours before it happened. Here's what this means for resolution risk in geopolitical markets.
Quantifying Oracle Governance Risk: A Framework for Prediction Market Resolution Assessment
Learn a quantitative framework for assessing oracle governance attack risk in prediction markets. Includes formulas, worked examples, and implementation code for UMA, Polymarket, and centralized venues.
Risk Alert: Iran Strike Bets Expose Critical Insider Information Loopholes
Analysis of the $553K Polymarket insider trading case on Iran's Supreme Leader death and what it means for prediction market resolution risk.
Iran Market Resolution Chaos: Why Your 'Yes' Bet Might Not Pay $1
Kalshi and Polymarket diverged sharply on Iran Supreme Leader market resolution, exposing critical resolution risk for prediction market traders.
The Resolution Risk Calculator: A Quantitative Framework for Prediction Market Safety
Learn how to quantify resolution risk in prediction markets using the Resolution Confidence Score (RCS). Includes formulas, code examples, and a practical risk management framework for market makers.
SCOTUS Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs: Prediction Markets Face $133B Resolution Gap
Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling in Learning Resources v. Trump invalidates $133.5B in IEEPA tariffs, creating resolution uncertainty for trade-war prediction markets.
Risk Alert: US-Iran Strike Resolution & Insider Trading Detection
Six wallets netted $1.2M on Polymarket hours before US-Iran strikes. How SettleRisk detects anomalous positioning and what traders should watch.
Kalshi Insider Trading Enforcement Wave: 200+ Investigations and First Public Cases
Kalshi disclosed 200+ insider trading investigations and its first public enforcement cases. Here's how this changes resolution risk for prediction market participants.
Inside UMA Optimistic Oracle: A Quantitative Guide to Prediction Market Resolution Risk
How Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle actually works: bond economics, dispute windows, voter concentration, and failure modes that every serious trader should understand.
Post-Mortem: The $7M Ukrainian Minerals Dispute — and How You Could Have Seen It Coming
A detailed analysis of the March 2025 Polymarket governance attack where a UMA whale resolved a $7M Ukraine minerals market incorrectly. We break down what happened, what SettleRisk would have flagged, and what this means for traders.
Navigating Resolution Risk in Prediction Markets: A Guide for Traders
This guide provides an in-depth look at resolution risk in prediction markets, showcasing how traders can utilize SettleRisk API to score risk and make informed trading decisions.
Why Risk Scoring Matters for Market Makers
Market makers in prediction markets face unique resolution risks. Here's how systematic risk scoring improves quoting, inventory management, and P&L.
Modeling Settlement Delays in Prediction Markets
How SettleRisk models settlement delays using lognormal distributions. Understanding p50, p90, and p99 delay estimates for capital planning.
Polymarket vs Kalshi: A Risk Scoring Comparison
How resolution risk differs between Polymarket and Kalshi. Platform-specific scoring, oracle dependencies, dispute mechanisms, and what the base points tell you.
Dispute Pricing Explained: Why Mid-Price Isn't Fair Price
Mid-price assumes clean resolution. When disputes are possible, the true fair price must account for resolution risk, capital lockup, and settlement delays.
What Is Resolution Risk in Prediction Markets?
Resolution risk is the probability that a prediction market contract will not settle as expected. Learn how ambiguous criteria, oracle failures, and jurisdictional conflicts create real capital lockup costs.