Blog
Insights on resolution risk, dispute pricing, and settlement delays in prediction markets.
Risk Alert: US-Iran Strike Resolution & Insider Trading Detection
Six wallets netted $1.2M on Polymarket hours before US-Iran strikes. How SettleRisk detects anomalous positioning and what traders should watch.
Kalshi Insider Trading Enforcement Wave: 200+ Investigations and First Public Cases
Kalshi disclosed 200+ insider trading investigations and its first public enforcement cases. Here's how this changes resolution risk for prediction market participants.
Inside UMA Optimistic Oracle: A Quantitative Guide to Prediction Market Resolution Risk
How Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle actually works: bond economics, dispute windows, voter concentration, and failure modes that every serious trader should understand.
Post-Mortem: The $7M Ukrainian Minerals Dispute — and How You Could Have Seen It Coming
A detailed analysis of the March 2025 Polymarket governance attack where a UMA whale resolved a $7M Ukraine minerals market incorrectly. We break down what happened, what SettleRisk would have flagged, and what this means for traders.
Navigating Resolution Risk in Prediction Markets: A Guide for Traders
This guide provides an in-depth look at resolution risk in prediction markets, showcasing how traders can utilize SettleRisk API to score risk and make informed trading decisions.
Why Risk Scoring Matters for Market Makers
Market makers in prediction markets face unique resolution risks. Here's how systematic risk scoring improves quoting, inventory management, and P&L.
Modeling Settlement Delays in Prediction Markets
How SettleRisk models settlement delays using lognormal distributions. Understanding p50, p90, and p99 delay estimates for capital planning.
Polymarket vs Kalshi: A Risk Scoring Comparison
How resolution risk differs between Polymarket and Kalshi. Platform-specific scoring, oracle dependencies, dispute mechanisms, and what the base points tell you.
Dispute Pricing Explained: Why Mid-Price Isn't Fair Price
Mid-price assumes clean resolution. When disputes are possible, the true fair price must account for resolution risk, capital lockup, and settlement delays.
What Is Resolution Risk in Prediction Markets?
Resolution risk is the probability that a prediction market contract will not settle as expected. Learn how ambiguous criteria, oracle failures, and jurisdictional conflicts create real capital lockup costs.