Blog
Insights on resolution risk, dispute pricing, and settlement delays in prediction markets.
Navigating Resolution Risk in Prediction Markets: A Guide for Traders
This guide provides an in-depth look at resolution risk in prediction markets, showcasing how traders can utilize SettleRisk API to score risk and make informed trading decisions.
Why Risk Scoring Matters for Market Makers
Market makers in prediction markets face unique resolution risks. Here's how systematic risk scoring improves quoting, inventory management, and P&L.
Modeling Settlement Delays in Prediction Markets
How SettleRisk models settlement delays using lognormal distributions. Understanding p50, p90, and p99 delay estimates for capital planning.
Polymarket vs Kalshi: A Risk Scoring Comparison
How resolution risk differs between Polymarket and Kalshi. Platform-specific scoring, oracle dependencies, dispute mechanisms, and what the base points tell you.
Dispute Pricing Explained: Why Mid-Price Isn't Fair Price
Mid-price assumes clean resolution. When disputes are possible, the true fair price must account for resolution risk, capital lockup, and settlement delays.
What Is Resolution Risk in Prediction Markets?
Resolution risk is the probability that a prediction market contract will not settle as expected. Learn how ambiguous criteria, oracle failures, and jurisdictional conflicts create real capital lockup costs.