Features

Every market receives an aggregate risk score from 0 to 100, computed deterministically from platform base points, driver contributions, mitigations, and complexity adjustments.

The score maps to four tiers: LOW [0, 20), MEDIUM [20, 50), HIGH [50, 75), CRITICAL [75, 100].

Formula: raw_points = BASE_POINTS(platform) + sum(driver_points) - mitigation + complexity

{
  "market_id": "polymarket:0x1234abcd",
  "platform": "polymarket",
  "aggregate_risk_score": 67,
  "tier": "HIGH",
  "p_dispute": 0.231,
  "drivers": [
    {
      "driver_type": "AMBIGUOUS_WORDING",
      "strength": "HIGH",
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "points_contribution": 18,
      "evidence": {
        "text_span": "if the price reaches approximately $100k",
        "start_char": 142,
        "end_char": 186
      }
    },
    {
      "driver_type": "SINGLE_ORACLE_DEPENDENCY",
      "strength": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "points_contribution": 12,
      "evidence": {
        "text_span": "resolved by CoinGecko API",
        "start_char": 201,
        "end_char": 226
      }
    },
    {
      "driver_type": "TIME_PRESSURE",
      "strength": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence": 0.78,
      "points_contribution": 9,
      "evidence": {
        "text_span": "resolves within 24 hours of market close",
        "start_char": 310,
        "end_char": 350
      }
    }
  ],
  "expected_delay": {
    "median_hours": 48,
    "p90_hours": 168,
    "p99_hours": 504
  },
  "version": {
    "heuristics_version": "1.0.0",
    "stat_model_version": "none",
    "llm_extractor_version": "v1_extract_all@1",
    "driver_taxonomy_version": "1.0.0"
  }
}

Each score includes up to 15 explainable risk drivers, sorted by point contribution. Every driver has a type code, strength (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH), confidence score, point contribution, and evidence span pointing to the exact text in the resolution rules.

The driver taxonomy includes 15 recognized types:

We model settlement delay as a lognormal distribution, providing median (p50), p90, and p99 estimates in hours. The distribution parameters are adjusted by ambiguity drivers and single-point-of-failure oracle dependencies detected in the resolution rules.

This allows traders to price time-to-resolution into their positions and calculate capital lockup costs.

{
  "median_hours": 48,
  "p90_hours": 168,
  "p99_hours": 504,
  "distribution": "lognormal",
  "parameters": {
    "mu": "ln(median_hours)",
    "sigma": "adjusted by ambiguity and spof factors"
  }
}

Our pricing engine is what sets SettleRisk apart. Given a mid-price or event probability, we compute:

• Adjusted fair price — the dispute-probability-adjusted true value
• Risk premium — the spread between mid-price and adjusted fair price
• Capital lockup cost — in basis points, based on expected delay
• Fair spread — in basis points, the minimum spread a market maker should charge
• Do-not-quote flag — when conditions are too risky to provide liquidity

Input validation: exactly one of mid_price or p_event must be provided (XOR).

{
  "market_id": "polymarket:0x1234abcd",
  "mid_price": 0.65,
  "aggregate_risk_score": 67,
  "tier": "HIGH",
  "p_dispute": 0.231,
  "expected_delay_hours": 48,
  "adjusted_fair_price": 0.6218,
  "risk_premium": 0.0282,
  "capital_lockup_cost_bps": 42,
  "fair_spread_bps": 185,
  "do_not_quote": false
}

Score or price up to 1,000 markets in a single API call. Batch endpoints use partial success semantics: the overall HTTP response is always 200, and each item in the response carries either a result or an error object.

Batch endpoints: POST /v1/risk-scores:batch, POST /v1/expected-delays:batch, POST /v1/pricing:batch

Register webhook endpoints to receive real-time notifications. We support 7 event types with HMAC-signed payloads, at-least-once delivery guarantees, exponential backoff on failures, and manual replay support.

Event types:

• score.created — first score for a market
• score.updated — score recalculated
• score.tier_changed — tier transition
• rules.changed — resolution rules modified
• delay.updated — delay estimate changed
• market.resolved — market resolved
• url.unhealthy — monitored URL down

Webhook signing: HMAC-SHA256(secret, timestamp + "\n" + body)

Full gRPC service with parity to the REST API, plus StreamAlerts for real-time server-sent score updates. Ideal for low-latency trading system integration.

RPCs:

On-demand LLM extraction via POST /v1/evaluate-rules. Submit raw resolution rules text and get back structured risk drivers, ambiguity detection, and scoring — all in a single synchronous call.

This endpoint is stateless: it does not create or modify any persistent market, rule version, or score snapshot records. Only idempotency and audit writes are performed.