Know the Real Risk Before You Trade

// Step 1: Fetch market data with polykalshi (free, open source)
// npm install polykalshi
import { PolymarketClient } from "polykalshi";

const poly = new PolymarketClient();
const market = await poly.normalized.getMarket("12345");
console.log(`${market.title}: ${(market.outcomes[0].price * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);

// Step 2: Score it with SettleRisk (risk analytics API)
// npm install settlerisk
import { SettleRiskClient } from "settlerisk";

const sr = new SettleRiskClient({ keyId: "vx_key", secret: "..." });
const score = await sr.getRiskScore("polymarket", market.id);
console.log(`Risk: ${score.aggregate_risk_score}/100 (${score.risk_tier})`);
console.log(`P(Dispute): ${(score.p_dispute * 100).toFixed(1)}%`);

// Step 3: Get dispute-adjusted pricing
const pricing = await sr.price({
  platform: "polymarket",
  platform_market_id: market.id,
  mid_price: market.outcomes[0].price,
  position_side: "YES",
  position_notional_usd: 10000,
  annual_capital_cost_apr: 0.12,
});
console.log(`Fair price: ${pricing.adjusted_fair_price.toFixed(4)}`);
console.log(`Risk premium: ${pricing.risk_premium.toFixed(4)}`);