Risk Leaderboard

The riskiest live prediction markets, ranked by resolution risk score.

Last updated: 45d ago

Platform
Tier
50 markets
#MarketPlatformScoreTierP(Dispute)Top DriverDelay p50
1Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?polymarket
86
CRITICAL37.8%Subjective Outcome Language18h
2Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga?polymarket
85
CRITICAL37.5%Ambiguous Definitions17h
3Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February?polymarket
81
CRITICAL36.3%Single Source Url Dependency16h
4Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?polymarket
79
CRITICAL35.7%Single Source Url Dependency16h
5Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?polymarket
78
CRITICAL35.4%Subjective Outcome Language16h
6Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?polymarket
76
CRITICAL34.8%Single Source Url Dependency15h
7Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21?polymarket
75
CRITICAL34.5%Subjective Outcome Language15h
8Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?polymarket
75
CRITICAL34.5%Subjective Outcome Language15h
9Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?polymarket
73
HIGH27.9%Subjective Outcome Language15h
10Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?polymarket
71
HIGH27.3%Subjective Outcome Language14h
11Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?polymarket
71
HIGH27.3%Single Source Url Dependency14h
12US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?polymarket
70
HIGH27.0%Subjective Outcome Language14h
13Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?polymarket
69
HIGH26.7%Ambiguous Definitions14h
14Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?kalshi
69
HIGH21.7%Ambiguous Definitions7h
15Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?polymarket
68
HIGH26.4%Ambiguous Definitions14h
16Will experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?kalshi
67
HIGH21.1%Ambiguous Definitions7h
17New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? polymarket
64
HIGH25.2%Single Source Url Dependency13h
18Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open?polymarket
64
HIGH25.2%Single Source Url Dependency13h
19Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket
64
HIGH25.2%Subjective Outcome Language13h
20Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?polymarket
63
HIGH24.9%Subjective Outcome Language13h
21Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?polymarket
63
HIGH24.9%Subjective Outcome Language13h
22Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?polymarket
63
HIGH24.9%Subjective Outcome Language13h
23Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?polymarket
61
HIGH24.3%Ambiguous Definitions12h
24Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League?polymarket
61
HIGH24.3%Single Source Url Dependency12h
25Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?kalshi
61
HIGH19.3%Single Source Url Dependency6h
26Will the EU meet its climate goals?kalshi
61
HIGH19.3%Single Source Url Dependency6h
27Will India meet its climate goals?kalshi
61
HIGH19.3%Single Source Url Dependency6h
28Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?polymarket
60
HIGH24.0%Subjective Outcome Language12h
29Will Ding Xuexiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?kalshi
59
HIGH18.7%Ambiguous Definitions6h
30Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?kalshi
58
HIGH18.4%Ambiguous Definitions6h
31Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?kalshi
57
HIGH18.1%Ambiguous Definitions6h
32Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?kalshi
55
HIGH17.5%Ambiguous Definitions6h
33Who will perform the next James Bond Song?kalshi
54
HIGH17.2%Subjective Outcome Language6h
34Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?polymarket
53
HIGH21.9%Ambiguous Definitions11h
35Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?kalshi
53
HIGH16.9%Ambiguous Definitions6h
36Will Position abolished be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?kalshi
53
HIGH16.9%Ambiguous Definitions6h
37Will Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be the first to leave office?kalshi
53
HIGH16.9%Ambiguous Definitions6h
38Will Britain Restoring Underlying Values ("BRUV") win a seat in the next U.K. general election?kalshi
53
HIGH16.9%Ambiguous Definitions6h
39Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals?polymarket
51
HIGH21.3%Single Source Url Dependency11h
40Will Ramp or Brex IPO first?kalshi
51
HIGH16.3%Ambiguous Definitions5h
41Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?kalshi
49
MEDIUM15.7%Ambiguous Definitions5h
42Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?polymarket
48
MEDIUM20.4%Single Source Url Dependency10h
43Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?polymarket
46
MEDIUM19.8%Temporal Ambiguity10h
44Will Deel or Rippling IPO first?kalshi
46
MEDIUM14.8%Ambiguous Definitions5h
45Will Johnny Depp be casted in the next Pirates of the Caribbean?kalshi
46
MEDIUM14.8%Ambiguous Definitions5h
46MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?polymarket
41
MEDIUM18.3%Subjective Outcome Language9h
47When will a supervolcano next erupt?kalshi
40
MEDIUM13.0%Ambiguous Definitions5h
48Will Félix Tshisekedi leave office next in this set?kalshi
40
MEDIUM13.0%Ambiguous Definitions5h
49Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?kalshi
36
MEDIUM11.8%Ambiguous Definitions4h
50Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?polymarket
35
MEDIUM16.5%Subjective Outcome Language9h

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