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polymarketHIGH
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $21211484.484833
73
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
27.9%
Delay p50
15h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
polymarket
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Subjective Outcome Language+19 pts
Single Source Url Dependency+15 pts
Temporal Ambiguity+9 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from polymarket that our engine evaluates for risk.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa. In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 14.78496673333825h
p90 2d
p99 5d
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