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polymarketHIGH

Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $3128999.875842

71
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
27.3%
Delay p50
14h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
polymarket

Risk Drivers

Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.

Single Source Url Dependency+16 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+14 pts
Temporal Ambiguity+10 pts

Resolution Rules

The full resolution criteria text from polymarket that our engine evaluates for risk.

This market will resolve according to the country that wins the most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026.

In the case of ties, the ordered list for most gold medals won will use most overall medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most gold medals won, and Norway wins more overall medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher.

This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market.

If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the gold medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).

Settlement Delay Distribution

Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.

p50 14.379738224609872h
p90 2d
p99 5d

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Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? - Risk Score 71 (HIGH) | SettleRisk