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polymarketCRITICAL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $9427517.583005
75
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
34.5%
Delay p50
15h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
polymarket
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Subjective Outcome Language+22 pts
Ambiguous Definitions+20 pts
Temporal Ambiguity+3 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from polymarket that our engine evaluates for risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 15.198042391991399h
p90 2d
p99 5d
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