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polymarketCRITICAL
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $5689388.972374
78
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
35.4%
Delay p50
16h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
polymarket
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Subjective Outcome Language+19 pts
Ambiguous Definitions+18 pts
Single Source Url Dependency+11 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from polymarket that our engine evaluates for risk.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 15.832231232000112h
p90 2d
p99 5d
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