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polymarketMEDIUM
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $5100060.006241
35
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
16.5%
Delay p50
9h
Risk Drivers
1
Platform
polymarket
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Subjective Outcome Language+19 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from polymarket that our engine evaluates for risk.
The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 29. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Netherlands following the 2025 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 8.517717128239813h
p90 1d
p99 3d
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