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kalshiMEDIUM
When will a supervolcano next erupt?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $14,436
40
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
13.0%
Delay p50
5h
Risk Drivers
2
Platform
kalshi
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Ambiguous Definitions+20 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+5 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from kalshi that our engine evaluates for risk.
If a supervolcano erupts before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 4.579658645201086h
p90 11.231367794695043h
p99 23.33765091695569h
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