← Back to leaderboard
kalshiHIGH
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $17,662
58
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
18.4%
Delay p50
6h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
kalshi
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Ambiguous Definitions+18 pts
Single Source Url Dependency+15 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+5 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from kalshi that our engine evaluates for risk.
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 5.970905600384082h
p90 14.643326514213047h
p99 1d
Similar Markets
Other markets with similar risk profiles.
kalshiHIGH
Will Ding Xuexiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
59
P(Dispute): 18.7%Ambiguous Definitions
kalshiHIGH
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
57
P(Dispute): 18.1%Ambiguous Definitions
polymarketHIGH
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
60
P(Dispute): 24.0%Subjective Outcome Language
polymarketHIGH
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
61
P(Dispute): 24.3%Ambiguous Definitions
Embed This Score
Add a risk badge to your README, blog, or documentation.
[](https://settlerisk.com/markets/kalshi/KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35)<a href="https://settlerisk.com/markets/kalshi/KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35"><img src="https://settlerisk.com/api/badge/kalshi/KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35" alt="SettleRisk Risk Score" /></a>Get this data via API
Access risk scores, driver attribution, settlement delays, and dispute pricing programmatically for any prediction market.