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kalshiHIGH
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $35,092
57
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
18.1%
Delay p50
6h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
kalshi
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Ambiguous Definitions+20 pts
Temporal Ambiguity+11 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+5 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from kalshi that our engine evaluates for risk.
If a humanoid robot walks on Mars before a human does before 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 5.884353716195115h
p90 14.43106264916084h
p99 1d
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