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kalshiHIGH
Will Ding Xuexiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $1,396
59
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
18.7%
Delay p50
6h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
kalshi
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Ambiguous Definitions+19 pts
Temporal Ambiguity+15 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+5 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from kalshi that our engine evaluates for risk.
If Ding Xuexiang is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 6.0585084393360455h
p90 14.85816778959062h
p99 1d
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