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polymarketHIGH
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $23630175.682831
61
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
24.3%
Delay p50
12h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
polymarket
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Ambiguous Definitions+19 pts
Single Source Url Dependency+11 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+5 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from polymarket that our engine evaluates for risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 12.473691187938817h
p90 2d
p99 4d
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