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kalshiHIGH
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $47,772
55
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
17.5%
Delay p50
6h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
kalshi
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Ambiguous Definitions+19 pts
Temporal Ambiguity+11 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+5 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from kalshi that our engine evaluates for risk.
If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 5.7144249312537125h
p90 14.014321396058397h
p99 1d
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