← Back to leaderboard
kalshiHIGH
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $6,215
53
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
16.9%
Delay p50
6h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
kalshi
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Ambiguous Definitions+19 pts
Temporal Ambiguity+10 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+5 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from kalshi that our engine evaluates for risk.
If a human lands on Mars before California starts its high speed rail service for the public before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 5.548767623379011h
p90 13.608055711918505h
p99 1d
Similar Markets
Other markets with similar risk profiles.
polymarketHIGH
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
53
P(Dispute): 21.9%Ambiguous Definitions
kalshiHIGH
Will Position abolished be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
53
P(Dispute): 16.9%Ambiguous Definitions
kalshiHIGH
Will Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be the first to leave office?
53
P(Dispute): 16.9%Ambiguous Definitions
kalshiHIGH
Will Britain Restoring Underlying Values ("BRUV") win a seat in the next U.K. general election?
53
P(Dispute): 16.9%Ambiguous Definitions
Embed This Score
Add a risk badge to your README, blog, or documentation.
[](https://settlerisk.com/markets/kalshi/KXMARSVRAIL-50)<a href="https://settlerisk.com/markets/kalshi/KXMARSVRAIL-50"><img src="https://settlerisk.com/api/badge/kalshi/KXMARSVRAIL-50" alt="SettleRisk Risk Score" /></a>Get this data via API
Access risk scores, driver attribution, settlement delays, and dispute pricing programmatically for any prediction market.