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kalshiHIGH

Will Position abolished be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $17,767

53
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
16.9%
Delay p50
6h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
kalshi

Risk Drivers

Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.

Ambiguous Definitions+19 pts
Temporal Ambiguity+10 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+5 pts

Resolution Rules

The full resolution criteria text from kalshi that our engine evaluates for risk.

If the first new person to hold the position of Supreme Leader of Iran after Issuance is no individual because the position is abolished, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement Delay Distribution

Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.

p50 5.548767623379011h
p90 13.608055711918505h
p99 1d

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[![SettleRisk](https://settlerisk.com/api/badge/kalshi/KXNEXTIRANLEADER-45JAN01-ABO)](https://settlerisk.com/markets/kalshi/KXNEXTIRANLEADER-45JAN01-ABO)
<a href="https://settlerisk.com/markets/kalshi/KXNEXTIRANLEADER-45JAN01-ABO"><img src="https://settlerisk.com/api/badge/kalshi/KXNEXTIRANLEADER-45JAN01-ABO" alt="SettleRisk Risk Score" /></a>

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Will Position abolished be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? - Risk Score 53 (HIGH) | SettleRisk