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kalshiHIGH
Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $46,858
69
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
21.7%
Delay p50
7h
Risk Drivers
4
Platform
kalshi
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Ambiguous Definitions+18 pts
Single Source Url Dependency+14 pts
Temporal Ambiguity+9 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+5 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from kalshi that our engine evaluates for risk.
If Elon Musk visits Mars before the earlier of his death or Aug 1, 2099, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 6.991211273611964h
p90 17.145571586789433h
p99 1d
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