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polymarketMEDIUM
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $88352992.54261
48
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
20.4%
Delay p50
10h
Risk Drivers
2
Platform
polymarket
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Single Source Url Dependency+13 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+12 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from polymarket that our engine evaluates for risk.
This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 10.30726272378816h
p90 1d
p99 3d
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