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polymarketMEDIUM
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $8886978.729325
46
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
19.8%
Delay p50
10h
Risk Drivers
2
Platform
polymarket
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Temporal Ambiguity+11 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+11 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from polymarket that our engine evaluates for risk.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 10.006633084990689h
p90 1d
p99 3d
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