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kalshiMEDIUM
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $11,646
49
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
15.7%
Delay p50
5h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
kalshi
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Ambiguous Definitions+20 pts
Subjective Outcome Language+5 pts
Temporal Ambiguity+4 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from kalshi that our engine evaluates for risk.
If humans have a self-sufficient colony of at least 10 people reside on Mars for at least one Earth year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 5.230460822870438h
p90 12.827425314539306h
p99 1d
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