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polymarketHIGH
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Scored February 19, 2026 · Volume: $3378966.828035
64
Risk Score
out of 100
P(Dispute)
25.2%
Delay p50
13h
Risk Drivers
3
Platform
polymarket
Risk Drivers
Factors contributing to this market's resolution risk score.
Subjective Outcome Language+19 pts
Single Source Url Dependency+15 pts
Temporal Ambiguity+2 pts
Resolution Rules
The full resolution criteria text from polymarket that our engine evaluates for risk.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Settlement Delay Distribution
Estimated time to resolution based on lognormal delay modeling.
p50 13.02420559760373h
p90 2d
p99 4d
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